The recent escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has once again exposed a structural fragility of the global economy and reignited the debate on energy security and energy matrix diversification.

This maritime route, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, carries around 20 million barrels of oil per day—equivalent to approximately one quarter of all oil transported by sea worldwide, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). When this passage is at risk, markets react immediately and oil prices rise.

In recent weeks, escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have rapidly driven up barrel prices, reflecting fears of disruptions to oil flows from the Gulf. As the immediate risk of military escalation eased, prices declined, but volatility once again highlighted how exposed the global energy system remains to geopolitical shocks.

These fluctuations are not limited to financial markets. Rising oil prices tend to quickly ripple through the economy, increasing transportation costs, fuel prices, and entire production chains.

In Brazil’s case, this scenario has direct implications. Although the country is a significant oil producer, its logistics remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels—especially in road transport—while also importing large volumes of Diesel A, impacting the trade balance.

According to estimates from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System (SEEG), the transport sector recorded the highest increase in emissions in Brazil in 2023, growing by 3.2% compared to the previous year. In an economy that relies heavily on road transport to move agricultural, industrial, and mineral production, prolonged fuel price volatility tends to quickly affect overall economic costs.

With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately BRL 12.7 trillion, Brazil’s logistics system is predominantly road-based. This reinforces the country’s sensitivity to sustained increases in fuel prices. At the same time, Brazil starts from a different position compared to most industrialized economies.

According to the 2024 National Energy Balance, prepared by the Energy Research Office (EPE), about 49.1% of the country’s energy supply in 2023 came from renewable sources—a significantly higher share than the global average. In this context, biofuels play a central role in Brazil’s energy matrix.

The country accounts for approximately 24% of global ethanol production, consolidating its position as one of the world’s leading hubs for this technology. Industry projections indicate that domestic demand could grow from around 29 billion liters to more than 50 billion liters by 2050, further strengthening the role of this fuel in the energy matrix.

In addition, the study “Structural Initiatives and Challenges to Boost Low-Carbon Mobility in Brazil by 2040,” commissioned by the MBCBrasil Institute, highlights that the country has approximately 100 million hectares of degraded pastureland with potential for expanding bioenergy production without directly competing with food production.

Another front with significant potential is biomethane—a renewable fuel produced from organic waste. Sector estimates indicate that it could replace up to 70% of the diesel currently imported by Brazil, particularly in heavy transport and logistics applications.

According to José Eduardo Luzzi, Chairman of the Board of the MBCBrasil Institute, recent oil price volatility reinforces the importance of advancing domestic energy solutions.

“The Strait of Hormuz crisis shows how geopolitical bottlenecks continue to influence global energy costs. Brazil has a significant structural advantage: a consolidated biofuels base and the capacity to expand production without compromising food security,” he states.

According to him, turning this potential into a strategic energy policy could reduce the country’s exposure to external shocks and strengthen economic competitiveness.

The energy transition also represents a significant economic opportunity. BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2025 estimates that Brazil will need to mobilize around USD 6 trillion in investments by 2050 to achieve carbon neutrality. This volume of resources is expected to be primarily directed toward energy infrastructure, transportation, and the development of new technologies.

Part of this movement has already begun in 2024. A World Economic Forum report highlights that Brazil leads Latin America in advancing the energy transition and underscores the growing role of emerging economies in expanding global clean energy investments. The approval of the policy known as “Fuel of the Future” is also expected to accelerate investment flows into value chains such as ethanol, biodiesel, and new low-carbon fuels, reinforcing Brazil’s position as one of the countries with the greatest potential to lead lower-carbon energy solutions.

Recent oil price volatility has placed energy security back at the center of the global debate. For economies heavily dependent on transport and logistics, reducing exposure to external shocks is not only an environmental agenda but also an economic and strategic priority.

Brazil combines conditions that few countries possess: a strong renewable base, a consolidated biofuels industry, and the capacity to expand clean energy production. Transforming these advantages into a long-term strategy can reduce external vulnerabilities and enhance the competitiveness of the Brazilian economy in an increasingly uncertain energy landscape.

About the MBCBrasil Institute

The MBCBrasil Institute is a multisectoral organization dedicated to accelerating the decarbonization of mobility in Brazil. Created through the union of companies, industry associations, research institutions, and workers, the Institute’s mission is to translate technical evidence into public policies and promote sustainable mobility solutions. Its work focuses on enabling a viable decarbonization pathway, advancing bioelectricity-related technologies, and supporting a just and inclusive energy transition.

Guided by technological neutrality, the Institute encourages the integration of biofuels, electrification, and new renewable sources—strengthening industrial competitiveness and driving job creation, income generation, and innovation while positioning Brazil as a global leader in the energy transition.

For more information, visit our website and follow the MBCBrasil Institute on LinkedIn and Instagram.

Press Contact

Adriana Monori
+55 61 99999-1900
mbcbrasil@maquinacw.com